With the final international break of the season now concluded, our focus turns back to club matters and the Premier League relegation fight.
It’s now at the stage where only points matter. A valiant, encouraging, hard-fought defeat at The Emirates is just a loss. Zero points. So who is fighting the drop, who will be the key players, and what are the reasons to be fearful and cheerful ahead of the final handful of fixtures?
I’m happy to stake my microscopic reputation and say that Aston Villa are down. It would probably be a compliment to say they’ve even been in a relegation battle – really they’ve been shadow boxing since the Autumn, and in Mario Kart terms they’ve fallen off Rainbow Road twice and only just realised they’re in reverse. Sacking Remi Garde is too little too late.
But, what about the rest?
Assessing the Premier League relegation battle
Crystal Palace (16th, points 33)
Key Man: Yannick Bolasie
If football was judged purely on Vines then Yannick Bolasie would be tussling with Neymar and Suarez at Barça. The quicksilver winger capable of almost unimaginable skills is only let down by an inconsistent end product.
His importance to Crystal Palace, though, is immense. His injury in January coincided with the Eagles horrific slump and his return to form could be what gets them out of it.
Reason to be cheerful
Seven points clear of the drop. Despite a cataclysmic 2016, Palace probably did enough before Christmas to ensure their survival. There are only eight games remaining and it will take at least three for their rivals to be able to catch them, so in theory Palace are only one or two positives results away from confirmed safety.
Reason to be fearful
That cataclysmic run. Palace haven’t won since late December (19th) and as Newcastle proved last season, ‘you’re not safe, until you’re safe.’
Recently, even when opposition’s arms are tied behind their back (Liverpool, 1-0 up and playing ten men) and when Palace have played well (v Leicester) they haven’t got the all-important win. You can look at the table and say ‘one win and they’re safe’ but they have to get that one win. The longer it takes, the more the fear factor increases.
SEE ALSO: From non-league to the Premier League – the rise of Crystal Palace new boy Freddie Ladapo
Norwich City (17th, points 28)
Key Man: Nathan Redmond
Way back in the autumn of 2015, Nathan Redmond was probably an injury or two away from the England squad, but now that seems a distant memory. That being said, the winger still has a huge part to play in Norwich‘s final seven fixtures. He is their top scorer with five, and can offer pace from out wide which can help Norwich get at teams.
SEE ALSO: The top 10 young players to watch in the Premier League 2015/16 – including Nathan Redmond
Reason to be cheerful
It’s in their hands. Yes, you can say that about their rivals too, but Norwich’s next three games are…drum-roll…. Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Sunderland.
The term ‘six-pointer’ gets thrown around a lot, but these are genuinely three, six pointers. Not only would wins take them three points away from their rivals, but it would also reduce the amount of games their rivals have to claw back at them.
Reason to be fearful
Goals. Dieumerci Mbokani, Norwich’s highest scoring striker, has only four league goals, and they’ve conceded three or more goals nine times in the league. If this run continues they could yo-yo back down to the Championship, especially when you consider their North East rivals have a game in hand, and the fact Norwich face Arsenal and Manchester United in two of their final four fixtures.
SEE ALSO: The Premier League Run-In: Roundtable Discussion predicting the title, top 4, relegation and more
Sunderland (18th, points 26)
Key Man: Jermain Defoe
While his ‘all-round game’ may have held him back over the years, there can be no denying that Jermain Defoe is a capable poacher.
One of the top 10 scorers in the league, he’s netted 12 Premier League goals so far, at an average of one every 160 minutes, the majority of those goals winning Sunderland points. Continuing this form could see the Black Cats survive.
Reason to be cheerful
Allardyce. He’s sort of like a large skulled-Dudley-Houdini. Sam Allardyce doesn’t do relegation. Even when his teams seem doomed he usually finds a formula, and his way into mid-table.
This time round he’s taken over part-way through the season, but the fans will hope he repeats the trick, and by hook or crook keeps Sunderland up, as others before him have, just.
Reason to be fearful
Lack of quality. Defoe’s 12 league goals are four times as many as second top scorer Fabio Borini’s three (after Steven Fletcher’s departure), and in defence the Black Cats have not kept a league clean sheet since November.
This lack of quality is the reason that after around half a year in the job, Allardyce still doesn’t seem to know his best XI. As Wigan’s eventual relegation proved, an umbrella can only last a few storms before you get wet.
Newcastle United (19th, points 25)
Key Man: Jonjo Shelvey
Before the milk turned sour at Swansea, Jonjo Shelvey had got his grove back. He was pinging passes and threatening from range so much so he forced his way into England’s starting XI and looked a shoe-in for Euro 2016.
It’s gone downhill since then, but if Shelvey can recapture even a slither of that form he could haul Newcastle to safety.
Reason to be cheerful
Match winners. The term ‘match winner’ is subjective, but for me Newcastle have players like Papiss Cisse, Ayoze Perez and Aleksander Mitrovic capable of scoring when it matters and a roll call of players who can, even if they don’t regularly, dominate a Premier League game.
Andros Townsend, Moussa Sissoko, Seydou Doumba and Georginio Wijnaldum could all combine to devastating effect under a top manager. The key word here, though, is ‘potentially’.
Reason to be fearful
The back. Like their neighbours, Newcastle just cannot seem to keep clean sheets. Fabricio Coloccini has been unconvincing, local lads Taylor and Dummett are often inconsistent or injured and Lascelles and Mbemba are still finding their feet at this level.
From now until the season’s summit they’ll be playing in front of ‘shakey-on-debut’ Karl Darlow or teenager Freddy Woodman due to serious knee injuries to Tim Krul and his deputy Rob Elliot.
So will Palace’s Champions League dreams turn to Championship nightmares? Will Norwich pogo back down after a brief stay in the Premier League? Or will the North East lose one or two of it’s most famous Premier League clubs?
A lot can change between now and May 15th, and the relegation fight will certainly be fascinating viewing.
Who do you think will survive the drop in the Premier League relegation battle and who will be playing in the Championship next season? Let us know below, on our Facebook page, or on Twitter @JustFootball.
(main image via @CPFC on Twitter)
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