It’s all kicking off in the Premier League at the moment. Not only do we have a nice, shiny new logo (thoughts, anyone?) but a madcap, thrilling, completely unpredictable and at times frankly bonkers 2015/16 season is heading towards what should be a fascinating conclusion.
Can Leicester hang on? Who will be the key movers and shakers? Who’s for the drop and who’s for the chop? We asked a handful of Just Football writers to peer into their crystal balls and predict how the season will pan out, with just 13 games to go….
Premier League run-in 2015/16 – Just Football writers’ predictions
1) Who will win the Premier League title?
Jonathan Fadugba: I went with Arsenal at the start of the season and I’m sticking with it. As much as I’m rooting for underdogs Leicester and Spurs, I’ve had a sneaking suspicion for the Gunners all season that just won’t go away. Arsene Wenger’s side are potent, balanced, experienced and traditionally strong finishers, though usually in a late season scramble for fourth.
Leicester’s run-in is deceptive: it appears straightforward with several winnable games but many of those teams will be tempted to park the bus to negate Leicester’s fearsome counter-attack. Will they find a way to break them down? In a campaign nobody seems to want to grab by the scruff of the neck, Arsenal’s traditional late season shift of gears could provide the momentum to take them all the way for the first time in 12 years.
Ross Tyson: The outlook changes weekly, but I’ll say Manchester City. I think something (no idea what) will disrupt Leicester, while I think Spurs will drop back. Arsenal will be the closest challengers.
Jake Meador: I can’t believe I’m saying this because as a Spurs fan I don’t want to believe it, but I think it’s Leicester. City, Spurs, and Arsenal still have European competitions they’re competing in. That said, if anyone besides Leicester is going to get it, it’ll be Arsenal. They’re likely to be out of Europe the soonest and are the most balanced squad in the league, I believe.
Also, the big danger for Leicester is that if N’Golo Kante goes down for any length of time, they could break down in a hurry. So I’d give Leicester the best shot at the title, but Arsenal still has a pretty clear path as well. City and Spurs are harder to see because City are too inconsistent and Spurs draw too many games they should be winning.
Deji Faremi: It’s really difficult to look beyond Leicester City. They aren’t only top of the league with 5 points, they also have the most wins and fewest defeats. Add their performances in the big games, where they’ve managed not to let the pressure overwhelm them, and you’d think they are in pole position. It’s easy to predict they’ll somehow contrive to throw it away because of their inexperience at this level, but after 25 games they’ve convinced me they can keep it up.
Tom Lainchbury: This season already belongs to Leicester. 2015/16 will always be remembered as the season they defied all expectations, no matter who wins. They could lose every game from now until the end of the season and still consider it a successful campaign, but the momentum is firmly with the Foxes, and they don’t look like losing anytime soon, so I’m going to back them to do the unthinkable.
They have the easiest run in, and although that represents a unique challenge in the sense that they can’t counter-attack sides that won’t attack them, I think the teams below them will drop enough points to keep them at the top. I hope.
2) Will the current top four (Leicester, Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester City) stay top four for the rest of the season? If not, how will it look come May?
Jonathan Fadugba: It looks quite likely, yes. If anyone, Spurs would be my surprise candidate to potentially drop out of the top four despite a seven-point advantage. It would be so typically Spursy.
Europa League could provide an unwelcome distraction for them, while City shouldn’t drop out if Vincent Kompany stays fit – though I expect them to have a dip too. That said, Manchester United lack the consistency of the Ferguson era so you’d think they’re unlikely to make up the ground.
Ross Tyson: Right now the gap is 6 points so it would be tempting to say nobody will make up that ground. I think it will stay the same in terms of names, but if anybody ‘breaks in’ I think it will be Manchester United.
Jake Meador: I can’t see anyone currently in the top four falling out. Chelsea are too far back. United are a wreck. Liverpool are actually doing worse in terms of points per match under Klopp than they were under Rodgers.
The big question is what order that top four will be—and right now I could imagine just about any possible permutation there. The likeliest outcome to me seems to be Leicester, Arsenal, Spurs, City. But it’s very difficult to say because of how tight things are with those four teams.
Deji Faremi: The current top four seem to be too concerned with winning the league. They are the most (and only) consistent sides in the league, and are helped by the inconsistency of the teams outside the top 4. I believe they’ll easily keep their spots.
Tom Lainchbury: All four teams are still in the title race, which is unusual given that the team in fourth are usually more concerned about keeping hold of that final Champions League spot. As has been said on many occasions, this is the best chance each of these teams will have of winning the league, and for that reason I think the top four will remain the same – they are all looking up rather than down.
3) Who will win the Golden Boot?
JF: Sergio Aguero if he stays fit. That four goal gap is nothing for a player like Aguero. With games against Norwich, Villa and West Brom to come he’ll probably score four in one game at some point. An animal.
RT: Nobody outright.
JM: Jamie Vardy.
DF: Aguero. Easily the best and most consistent striker in the league when he’s 100% fit.
TL: Vardy may already be four goals ahead, but Sergio Aguero has already shown how quickly he can make up that kind of gap. He looks dangerous even when Manchester City are poor, and is undoubtedly the league’s most instinctive finisher, so plenty more goals seem inevitable. Assuming he stays fit of course…
4) Which one factor do you think most holds the key to the title race between now and May, and why?
JF: Big game experience in a title run-in, which is why I fear slightly for Leicester despite their mind-bendingly brilliant season to date. Danny Simpson has been around title races while at Manchester United but not as a starter, Robert Huth too at Chelsea but them aside they have practically nobody used to the high pressure that comes with the final stretch. Just look what it did to Steven Gerrard.
Leicester have no distractions, but in those nervy, tight games towards the season’s end do they have the players who can unpick the lock? Do Spurs? Maybe, but Arsenal and City’s big game experience is not to be overlooked. Whoever manages that pressure best will be rewarded a Premier League title for their efforts.
RT: Perhaps European fixture congestion and injuries. If Aguero, Mahrez, Kane or Cech got injured everything would change.
JM: The biggest question is whether or not teams are going to figure out how to deal with Leicester’s counter attack. Typically teams that rely on the counter as much as the Foxes get found out in the second half of the season. So when Leicester has a steady run of games against teams that will just sit deep and play for the draw it will be interesting to see if the Foxes can continue to get wins.
At this point in the season it may actually be easier for Leicester to do well against the Manchester Citys and Arsenals of the world because they will still attack, which leaves space in behind for Leicester to counter. From February 27 to April 23 they have a run of nine fixtures against teams that will not be battling for top four. Those teams will likely sit deep and play for a draw.
Can Leicester break them down? If they can, we are likely to see a Foxes title come May. If they can’t, that opens the door for Arsenal, City, and Spurs.
DF: This is the time of the season when you need your best players in their best form. Aguero seems to be flying, and that could be a huge factor if City are to snatch the title. Ozil, Mahrez, Kane, Kompany, Vardy… the form of the big players at the big teams will be a huge determinant.
TL: Progress in cup competitions. An increased risk of injuries, fatigue and humiliating defeats to Europe’s elite are all things title-chasers could do without. Leicester are the only team that can focus 100% on the Premier League.
5) Manager most under pressure?
JF: Manuel Pellegrini has already effectively lost his job and Jurgen Klopp, despite an underwhelming campaign (he joined in October and Liverpool are 9th), has both his charisma and the ‘it’s not my set of players’ cards to fall back on. So I’ll say Louis van Gaal.
He has to somehow either secure top four, win the FA Cup or Europa League to salvage anything from a campaign riddled with criticism. Even that may not be enough to save his job, but as his career winds down it would fall completely flat if it ended with a 5th place (or below) finish and no trophies.
RT: I think Van Gaal is just going through the motions before he leaves, so I’ll say Arsene Wenger. Imagine if they manage to finish above City, Chelsea, United, Liverpool and Spurs and still don’t win the league.
JM: Well, Louis Van Gaal is an obvious pick but I think he’s gone no matter what happens at this point. Even if United somehow scrambled and got fourth because Spurs or City slipped, it’s hard to see United bringing him back. Jurgen Klopp could be another choice, I suppose, because football is stupid. But Klopp was always going to need more than half a season so it’s far too soon to judge him.
There is one obvious pick for this though: First, Roberto Martinez has what may be the most talented Everton squad of the Premier League era. They have scored the second most goals this season, trailing only Leicester and City. Yet the gap between the Toffees and top four is the same as the gap between them and the relegation places–12 points. Given the attacking talent in this squad, you’d think they’d be contending for more than a Europa League place.
DF: Steve McClaren. Imagine if he manages to get Newcastle relegated after all the support he’s received from the club.
TL: Steve McClaren. Arguably had the best squad of the teams struggling down at the bottom to start with, but since he was given plenty of money to add to it in January, there are no excuses. Newcastle fans will soon pile on the pressure if they don’t start climbing the table soon.
6) Random rest of the season prediction.
JF: As the Pep Guardiola era draws ever nearer, Manchester City take their eye off the ball and lose a lot more games than you might expect. A Pep-Pellegrini swap could happen sooner than expected.
RT: China to make a £7bn bid for the Premier League outright and Nigel Pearson to take over at Villa and sacrifice Charles Gil as a warning to the rest of the squad.
JM: You might say the remainder of this season hinges on the health of four players—N’Golo Kante at Leicester, Mesut Ozil at Arsenal, Vincent Kompany at City, and Eric Dier at Spurs.
All four title contenders have more depth than many think, but these four players are the most irreplaceable in their respective squads.
Kante is the engine of Leicester’s midfield and vital to their counter attacking style. Ozil is the heart of the Arsenal attack. Kompany is (somehow) City’s only competent defender. Dier is Spurs’ most versatile player and doesn’t really have any backup in the holding midfield role unless Pochettino decides to bring Nabil Bentaleb out of the deep freeze or sacrifice Mousa Dembele in the box-to-box role.
DF: Chelsea to climb all the way to the brink of European football, but lose out on the last day at Stamford Bridge after losing to already champions, Leicester City. What are the odds?
TL: No St Totteringham’s Day this year – Spurs to finish higher than Arsenal for the first time in 21 years.
7) Which three teams are going down?
JF: Norwich and Aston Villa. I have Sunderland and Newcastle level on points at the end of the season with it going down to goal difference. Flip a coin.
RT: Villa, Norwich, Sunderland.
JM: Sunderland, Villa, Norwich. Sunderland and Villa are both awful. Newcastle is bad too, but has just enough talent to avoid the drop. Norwich simply doesn’t have enough quality in the side to stay up.
DF: Villa, Sunderland, Norwich.
TL: Aston Villa, Norwich, and West Brom. Villa’s form will pick-up but it will be too little too late and they’ll go down with Norwich and West Brom, who don’t have the players to get them out of their slump in form.
Newcastle have enough quality to pull away, and decent January signings plus Defoe’s goals will secure Sunderland enough points to pull off another great escape, leapfrogging West Brom in the final few games.
What do you think of our predictions? Who’s in your book for the title, relegation and the rest? Let us know below or on Twitter @JustFootball or Facebook.
The post The Premier League Run-In: Roundtable Discussion predicting the title, top 4, relegation and more appeared first on Just Football.